Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b08…2c15 sports 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$511 (+3%) realized +$512 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate67%72W / 36L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$29
14 days+$188
30 days+$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$411
other 23% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.9% -12.1% 65% 35% -10.1%
≤30d 55 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 29% -6.4%
≤90d 84 -3.9% -13.0% 64% 26% -6.9%
all 108 -3.5% -12.7% 67% 22% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 22% -7.4%
10% -21.1% 6% -16.2%
15% -28.7% 3% -24.3%
20% -35.7% 1% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$512
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses72 / 36
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage145d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $100 −$21 -20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $66 +$18 +27%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $200 −$62 -31%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $103 −$9 -9%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $400 +$8 +2%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $201 +$27 +13%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $100 +$9 +9%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $100 +$14 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $500 +$10 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $617 −$100 -16%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $401 +$18 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $101 −$15 -15%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $200 −$6 -3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $200 +$2 +1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $301 +$42 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $201 +$21 +11%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $552 −$13 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $200 +$6 +3%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $200 +$14 +7%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $401 +$20 +5%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $500 +$4 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil Jun 11 $200 +$12 +6%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 11 $280 +$7 +3%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Zimbabwe High Performance Xi vs Brazil Jun 10 $200 +$15 +8%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 10 $201 +$51 +25%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $60 +$1 +2%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $201 +$21 +11%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Mongolia Jun 06 $226 −$2 -1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 06 $202 +$89 +44%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $25 −$22 -88%
Tuyo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 05 $21 −$5 -26%
Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch? Jun 05 $33 −$2 -6%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $250 +$10 +4%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $100 +$15 +15%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Oman Jun 03 $201 +$22 +11%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $25 −$22 -87%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $296 +$19 +6%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $291 +$20 +7%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands May 31 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 31 $5 −$2 -50%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $272 −$4 -2%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31? May 29 $13 −$4 -28%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $240 +$9 +4%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $202 +$23 +12%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $101 +$9 +9%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 25 $27 +$12 +44%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $100 +$17 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria SELL Rwanda 70¢ $80 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 87¢ $100 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL Scotland 73¢ $60 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 60¢ $51 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL Scotland 54¢ $23 21h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 34¢ $15 21h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 47¢ $2 28h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 32¢ $31 28h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 96¢ $100 28h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 97¢ $106 29h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 91¢ $100 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $94 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL South Africa 97¢ $113 43h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 97¢ $400 45h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi SELL Brazil 98¢ $228 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 86¢ $201 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 98¢ $109 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 98¢ $114 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 86¢ $100 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 90¢ $100 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland SELL England 100¢ $511 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 98¢ $500 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 100¢ $561 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 89¢ $502 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 92¢ $100 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 29¢ $18 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 24¢ $15 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $418 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 98¢ $200 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.10 · official $19.10 (match) · 378 history records