Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b0b…09ff crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,494 (-55%) realized −$1,494 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$934
crypto 26% −$196
other 24% −$467
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -37.4% -43.4% 31% 31% -63.7%
≤30d 42 -37.4% -43.4% 31% 31% -63.7%
≤90d 42 -37.4% -43.4% 31% 31% -63.7%
all 42 -37.4% -43.4% 31% 31% -63.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.4% 31% -63.7%
10% ← realistic here -48.8% 31% -67.2%
15% -53.7% 29% -70.4%
20% -58.3% 29% -73.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$75 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,494
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage3d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$34 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$32 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$28 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$33 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$29 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$41 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $60 −$57 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$27 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$8 +147%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$29 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$77 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$8 +27%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $30 +$31 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$37 +55%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$228 +223%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $406 −$400 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $457 −$450 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $14 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $29 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $68 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $35 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $53 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $42 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $42 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $82 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records