Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b0b…e5b3 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$1
politics 17% +$1
other 15% −$7
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 8 -2.5% -11.8% 12% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 13 -0.9% -10.4% 23% 0% -9.8%
all 49 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage300d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $67 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $17 −$2 -10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $63 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $2 $0 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $89 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $64 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $71 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $22 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $57 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $4 $0 +4%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 18 $3 $0 +4%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Oct 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 17 $6 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 17 $17 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $28 −$7 -24%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 24 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $3 $0 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $1 $0 +10%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August? Sep 02 $36 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $51 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $50 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $15 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $67 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $15 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $17 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $11 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $28 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $24 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $35 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $29 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $26 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $36 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $1 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $64 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $16 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $36 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $52 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.42 · official $60.42 (match) · 243 history records