Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b10…f57c sports 34 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$14
other 40% −$13
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -15.9% -23.9% 19% 19% -12.2%
≤30d 34 -13.6% -21.8% 21% 21% -9.6%
≤90d 34 -13.6% -21.8% 21% 21% -9.6%
all 34 -13.6% -21.8% 21% 21% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 21% -9.6%
10% -29.3% 21% -18.3%
15% -36.1% 21% -26.2%
20% -42.4% 21% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -90% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Iliman Ndiaye: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $1 +$6 +549%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 +$3 +275%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +132%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $2 +$10 +468%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$3 +149%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 44h
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $1 44h
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes $1 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $1 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes $2 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1 4d
Iliman Ndiaye: 1+ goals BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 4d
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY New Zealand $1 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records