Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b10…b794 politics 18 markets active 4d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% $0
politics 39% $0
sports 11% $0
economics 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 18 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage102d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $85 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $85 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $85 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $86 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $86 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $86 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $86 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $86 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $86 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $84 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 4d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $84 19d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $84 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $84 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $84 29d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $85 29d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $85 35d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 35d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $85 37d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 38d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 38d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 43d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 43d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $86 59d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 59d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 60d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 61d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 61d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 64d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 65d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $86 67d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $86 67d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 72d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 73d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $86 83d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $86 84d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $86 87d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $86 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records