Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b11…dcef crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$608 (+8%) realized +$75 · open +$533
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%32W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$6,317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$622
economics 1% $0
tech 1% +$2
other 1% +$1
politics 1% +$3
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 33 +1.6% -8.1% 97% 3% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -5.0%
10% -16.9% 0% -14.1%
15% -24.9% 0% -22.4%
20% -32.3% 0% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×749.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23988.04 per $1 lost it wins $23988.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$6,317
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$533
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses32 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage463d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $5,618 $6,152 +$534 (+9%)
Will Solana reach $90 June 22-28? No 100¢ 98¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 22-28? No 100¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 24? No 100¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 June 1-7? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 06 $22 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? May 06 $24 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? May 06 $26 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? Mar 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 17 $21 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? Jan 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 25 $25 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 25 $28 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 10 $70 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Oct 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 10 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September? Sep 14 $1,063 +$85 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Sep 08 $27 +$1 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 12 $24 +$3 +11%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 16 $23 +$2 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 29 $21 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $90 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $1,733 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $1,800 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $81 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $84 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $11 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $1,788 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $79 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $43 17d
Will Solana reach $100 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $36 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $24 19d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $20 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $23 19d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $20 48d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 49d
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 99d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 99d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 99d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $12 99d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $24 131d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $12 131d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $15 131d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 131d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $24 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,317.41 · official $6,317.41 (match) · 91 history records