Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b11…6f75 other 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$33 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate76%134W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$70
14 days+$35
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$293
sports 33% +$136
world 0% +$6
crypto 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.6% +1.0% 88% 75% +1.8%
≤30d 49 +7.0% -3.2% 84% 80% -4.1%
≤90d 177 -1.3% -10.7% 76% 74% -10.4%
all 177 -1.3% -10.7% 76% 74% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 74% -10.4%
10% -19.3% 50% -19.0%
15% -27.1% 19% -26.8%
20% -34.2% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$101 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses134 / 43
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions4
Markets (closed)177 / 180
History coverage86d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 84¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $75 $74 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 84¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $60 +$17 +27%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $75 +$13 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $75 +$14 +18%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $85 +$6 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 16 $76 +$23 +31%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $76 +$31 +42%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 09 $30 +$13 +42%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $50 +$10 +20%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $50 +$13 +26%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $50 +$16 +32%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $60 +$10 +16%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $60 +$14 +23%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $60 +$14 +23%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 09 $61 +$28 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $80 +$11 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $80 +$15 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $80 +$18 +23%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 06 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 04 $101 −$100 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $108 +$19 +17%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 03 $101 +$37 +37%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 03 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Slovakia (-1.5) Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $75 +$15 +20%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? Jun 01 $77 +$22 +29%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $90 +$9 +10%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 01 $111 +$39 +35%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $151 +$46 +31%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 26 $100 +$19 +18%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $40 +$27 +67%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $60 +$15 +24%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $75 +$21 +27%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $90 +$15 +17%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-14? May 19 $101 +$26 +26%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $76 +$51 +67%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $126 +$34 +27%
Bradford City AFC vs. Bolton Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $201 +$22 +11%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $75 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $75 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $75 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $76 1h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $76 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 66¢ $51 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $75 6d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 78¢ $60 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 84¢ $75 7d
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 93¢ $85 7d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 61¢ $30 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 84¢ $80 7d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 70¢ $30 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 88¢ $80 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 81¢ $80 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 8d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 8d
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 90¢ $50 8d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 68¢ $61 10d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 85¢ $60 10d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $60 10d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $60 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 81¢ $60 10d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 72¢ $61 10d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 11d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 57¢ $51 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 11d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 64¢ $51 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.27 · official $297.27 (match) · 320 history records