Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3B 0x3b1b…5533 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$638 (-6%) realized −$291 · open −$347
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,708per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3,294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$2,139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -52.8% -57.3% 0% 0% -41.1%
≤30d 4 -52.8% -57.3% 0% 0% -41.1%
≤90d 4 -52.8% -57.3% 0% 0% -41.1%
all 4 -52.8% -57.3% 0% 0% -41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.3% 0% -41.1%
10% -61.4% 0% -46.8%
15% -65.1% 0% -51.9%
20% -68.5% 0% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$448 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3,294
Realized−$291
Unrealized−$347
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,708
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 39¢ $3,000 $2,679 −$321 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $641 $615 −$25 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2,120 −$164 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,315 −$1,286 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,436 −$82 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $433 −$260 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $3,051 55m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1,956 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,122 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 1¢ $29 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,315 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,354 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $820 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $615 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,436 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $251 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2,048 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $263 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 31¢ $265 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 19¢ $170 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,293.90 · official $3,197.13 · 17 history records