Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b1d…3142 world 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$60 (-1%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%31W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$17
other 25% −$45
sports 9% −$1
politics 7% $0
finance 2% +$1
culture 1% +$2
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 27 -1.7% -11.0% 37% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 36 -2.9% -12.1% 33% 0% -10.7%
all 97 -2.0% -11.4% 32% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -10.5%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses31 / 66
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage298d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $96 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $104 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $21 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $88 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $75 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $87 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $103 −$8 -8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $104 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $178 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $118 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $367 −$2 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $210 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $98 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $119 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $96 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $106 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $98 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $106 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $105 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $10 −$2 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $116 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $9 −$1 -10%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $98 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $178 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 18 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $507 +$4 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $508 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $160 −$1 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $98 −$45 -45%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $8 $0 -1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Dec 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-23? Nov 25 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $75 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $33 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $94 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $96 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $8 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $4 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $96 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $88 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $88 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $71 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $71 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $57 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $87 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $82 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $5 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $8 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $1 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $103 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $104 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 413 history records