Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3b1d…409f world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$318 (+8%) realized +$270 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +118% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +97% what you keep after slip
Net edge+97%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$491
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+97.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 +117.9% +97.1% 67% 33% +15.0%
all 6 +117.9% +97.1% 67% 33% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +97.1% 33% +15.0%
10% +78.3% 33% +4.0%
15% +61.0% 33% -6.0%
20% +45.3% 33% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +118% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$92 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.82 per $1 lost it wins $5.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized+$270
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage82d
Avg bet$590
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 67¢ 75¢ $420 $468 +$48 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $608 +$56 +9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 09 $603 +$5 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $60 +$170 +283%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $60 +$303 +506%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $300 −$92 -31%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.77 · official $467.52 (match) · 20 history records