Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3B 0x3b1e…8c4e crypto 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-5%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate63%52W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$28
other 5% −$17
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -10.4% -18.9% 62% 48% -12.4%
≤30d 82 -7.8% -16.6% 63% 52% -13.4%
≤90d 82 -7.8% -16.6% 63% 52% -13.4%
all 82 -7.8% -16.6% 63% 52% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 52% -13.4%
10% -24.6% 37% -21.6%
15% -31.9% 28% -29.2%
20% -38.5% 18% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses52 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage15d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$14 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$27 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$8 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $48 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 357 history records