Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3b24…11ef sports 451 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$9,647 (-9%) realized −$9,714 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate70%315W / 134L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day58.7pace
Fees−$764est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$2,771
other 12% −$247
weather 6% −$1,485
politics 1% −$379
world 0% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +6.2% -3.9% 76% 69% -6.3%
≤30d 294 +2.6% -7.2% 71% 61% -10.4%
≤90d 449 -1.6% -10.9% 70% 57% -13.5%
all 449 -1.6% -10.9% 70% 57% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 57% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 29% -21.8%
15% -27.3% 13% -29.3%
20% -34.4% 7% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$156 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized−$9,714
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses315 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$764
Open positions2
Markets (closed)449 / 451
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$245
Trades / day58.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Linda Noskova 77¢ 89¢ $400 $463 +$62 (+16%)
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Martyna Kubka 67¢ 71¢ $69 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $452 +$78 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $275 +$44 +16%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $296 +$49 +17%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mickael Kaouk vs Filiberto Fumagalli Jun 19 $365 +$45 +12%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $167 −$167 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $160 +$60 +38%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $177 +$43 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $162 +$18 +11%
Brescia (Doubles): Harrison/Osborne vs Bara/Karamoko Jun 18 $285 +$35 +12%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $160 +$50 +31%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $195 +$25 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $183 +$6 +4%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $100 +$40 +40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $164 +$46 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $252 +$98 +39%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $350 +$79 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,053 −$339 -32%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $181 +$29 +16%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $22 +$12 +56%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $476 −$345 -72%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $193 −$115 -60%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $233 +$177 +76%
Halle Open, Qualification (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Altmaier/Fonsec Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Noskova vs Zarazua Jun 16 $48 +$11 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $433 +$296 +68%
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair Jun 16 $380 −$159 -42%
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 16 $538 +$101 +19%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $513 −$421 -82%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $432 +$117 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $102 +$72 +71%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $275 +$55 +20%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $180 +$84 +47%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $331 +$267 +81%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $297 +$33 +11%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $106 −$102 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $231 +$79 +34%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $253 +$57 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $104 +$36 +35%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $819 −$521 -64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $200 +$30 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $262 −$90 -34%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $174 −$116 -67%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $198 −$174 -88%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $327 +$103 +31%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $115 +$24 +21%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $17 +$5 +32%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $409 +$98 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $411 14m
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $118 17m
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Martyna Kubka 67¢ $36 18m
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Martyna Kubka 67¢ $34 19m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 77¢ $163 38m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 77¢ $240 39m
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 80¢ $169 52m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $320 52m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 86¢ $95 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 86¢ $26 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 86¢ $137 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 86¢ $17 1h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 100¢ $346 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 88¢ $283 1h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 86¢ $104 1h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 85¢ $188 1h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 80¢ $5 1h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mickael Kaouk vs Filiberto Fumagalli BUY Mickael Kaouk 89¢ $1 3h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mickael Kaouk vs Filiberto Fumagalli BUY Mickael Kaouk 89¢ $89 3h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mickael Kaouk vs Filiberto Fumagalli BUY Mickael Kaouk 89¢ $89 3h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mickael Kaouk vs Filiberto Fumagalli BUY Mickael Kaouk 89¢ $186 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $81 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $32 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $37 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $11 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 12h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 72¢ $160 21h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 80¢ $177 24h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $180 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $536.42 · official $536.42 (match) · 3500 history records