Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3B 0x3b27…e9ce politics 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$15
politics 39% −$17
sports 10% +$22
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 134 -1.7% -11.0% 5% 4% -9.6%
all 143 -1.2% -10.6% 7% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×11.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage113d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $271 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $294 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $438 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $194 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 25 $210 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $236 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $245 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $172 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $235 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $453 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $174 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $204 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $209 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $216 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 04 $234 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $977 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $248 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 30 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $214 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $179 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $211 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $442 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 4h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 8d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $34 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 11d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 16d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 17d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 18d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 18d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 19d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $199 19d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $199 21d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 22d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $212 22d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $194 23d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $194 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $210 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $210 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 422 history records