Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

3B 0x3b28…7f1b sports 12 markets active 12h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$25 (-4%) realized −$13 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-14.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-5.7%	-14.6%	43%	43%	-13.8%
≤30d	7	-5.7%	-14.6%	43%	43%	-13.8%
≤90d	7	-5.7%	-14.6%	43%	43%	-13.8%
all	7	-5.7%	-14.6%	43%	43%	-13.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.6%	43%	-13.8%
10%	-22.8%	43%	-22.1%
15%	-30.3%	43%	-29.6%
20%	-37.1%	43%	-36.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$61 vs −$50 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.92 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$238

Realized−$13

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions5

Markets (closed)7 / 12

History coverage1d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	48¢	56¢	$50	$58	+$8 (+17%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	Over	52¢	54¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+3%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	41¢	38¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-9%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	47¢	40¢	$50	$43	−$7 (-15%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	47¢	38¢	$50	$40	−$10 (-20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 24	$51	+$68	+134%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$51	+$63	+124%
Spread: England (-2.5)	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$51	+$52	+103%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	47¢	$51	12h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	41¢	$51	12h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	48¢	$51	12h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	47¢	$51	12h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	42¢	$51	25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$51	25h
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	40¢	$51	25h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	SELL Portugal	91¢	$103	25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$51	27h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$51	27h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	40¢	$51	27h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	44¢	$51	29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	44¢	$51	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.95 · official $237.95 (match) · 15 history records