Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

3B 0x3b29…b2f7 sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized +$10 · open −$42

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate48%11W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$250per market

Trades / day56.1pace

Fees−$60est.

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-4.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+5.1%	-4.9%	48%	39%	-10.0%
≤30d	23	+5.1%	-4.9%	48%	39%	-10.0%
≤90d	23	+5.1%	-4.9%	48%	39%	-10.0%
all	23	+5.1%	-4.9%	48%	39%	-10.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover56.1 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-4.9%	39%	-10.0%
10% ← realistic here	-14.0%	30%	-18.6%
15%	-22.3%	26%	-26.4%
20%	-29.9%	22%	-33.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late -4% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$83 vs −$84 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.91 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$10

Unrealized−$42

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses11 / 12

Est. fees paid−$60

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$250

Trades / day56.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	Under	21¢	0¢	$42	$0	−$42 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 18	$53	+$69	+131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Jun 18	$51	+$2	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 18	$104	−$96	-92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Jun 18	$52	+$19	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 18	$63	−$60	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 18	$104	−$12	-11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Jun 18	$310	+$268	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Jun 18	$104	−$100	-96%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$748	−$18	-2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5	Jun 18	$120	−$64	-53%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$1,199	−$91	-8%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$60	+$40	+67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$110	+$390	+353%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$240	−$239	-100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$186	+$14	+8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$507	+$90	+18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$63	+$17	+27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$469	−$41	-9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$9	+$1	+12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$183	−$183	-100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$304	−$17	-6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	+$7	+64%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$89	−$88	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	SELL Down	44¢	$122	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$53	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	SELL Up	68¢	$54	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$51	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	SELL Up	2¢	$4	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$52	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$52	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	SELL Down	80¢	$70	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$52	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$2	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$1	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$1	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$1	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$1	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$4	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$53	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	SELL Down	38¢	$92	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$52	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$52	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$104	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$104	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$103	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$103	51m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	21¢	$43	59m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	80¢	$795	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	81¢	$815	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	79¢	$729	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	80¢	$748	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	2¢	$57	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	4¢	$120	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 85 history records