Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3B 0x3b2d…ee33 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23,053 (-26%) realized −$23,017 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,942per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$3,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,123
30 days+$1,123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$12,637
politics 25% −$22,167
crypto 21% +$10,028
sports 2% +$1,123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +53.8% +39.1% 100% 100% +39.1%
≤90d 1 +53.8% +39.1% 100% 100% +39.1%
all 11 -10.1% -18.7% 64% 55% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 55% -35.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 45% -41.4%
15% -33.5% 27% -47.0%
20% -40.1% 18% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
19.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,146 vs −$9,660 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$3,638
Realized−$23,017
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage614d
Avg bet$5,942
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,000 $1,270 +$270 (+27%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,001 $930 −$72 (-7%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $750 −$250 (-25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $673 $688 +$15 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 02 $2,088 +$1,123 +54%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 12 $1,479 +$322 +22%
Will Ronaldo x MrBeast video get >20m views on day 1? Feb 12 $10,870 −$9,773 -90%
Will Ronaldo x MrBeast video get >30m views on day 1? Feb 12 $6,808 −$6,700 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? Nov 22 $1,182 +$305 +26%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? Nov 21 $7,421 +$6,733 +91%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $5,970 +$2,439 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? Nov 12 $10,010 +$2,990 +30%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $19,203 −$19,156 -100%
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election? Nov 05 $3,236 −$3,011 -93%
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? Oct 29 $15,097 +$1,111 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $673 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 9h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,031 9h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,030 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $906 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,872 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $132 47h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,852 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 2d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $3,211 12d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $8 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $8 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $3 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $3 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $3 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $314 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $5 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $5 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $106 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $116 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $786 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $2 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $3 13d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,637.87 · official $3,642.87 (match) · 369 history records