Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3B 0x3b2e…e228 crypto 128 markets active 3d ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,264 (-6%) realized −$1,264 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%57W / 71L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$280
14 days−$280
30 days−$767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1,937
crypto 36% −$1,154
other 22% +$1,702
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 33% +69.8%
≤30d 17 -48.6% -53.5% 24% 24% +34.8%
≤90d 28 -27.4% -34.3% 46% 25% +12.4%
all 128 -16.7% -24.6% 45% 37% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 37% -5.2%
10% -31.8% 34% -14.3%
15% -38.4% 31% -22.6%
20% -44.4% 27% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$79 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses57 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage481d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $29 +$35 +123%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,888 +$1,760 +93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5,994 −$2,075 -35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $83 +$21 +26%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $414 −$322 -78%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $10 −$8 -77%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 30 $31 −$27 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 25 $83 −$62 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 25 $83 −$69 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8AM ET Apr 01 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9AM ET Apr 01 $600 +$66 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $565 −$33 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $2,505 +$139 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 31 $245 +$243 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 31 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on March 24? Mar 25 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $99 +$1 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $12 +$5 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $1,191 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 17 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 13 $507 −$458 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 11 $576 −$517 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 11 $39 −$37 -96%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 10 $49 +$40 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 08 $60 +$66 +110%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 06 $139 −$123 -88%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 06 $137 +$144 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 03 $208 +$219 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 03 $140 +$148 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 03 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 01 $100 −$60 -60%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 29 $7 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 29 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 29 $55 −$40 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11PM ET Jan 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 29 $52 +$46 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 29 $128 +$96 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $64 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $7 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $29 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes $3 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,888 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $3,911 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $30 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $38 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $921 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $519 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4,005 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $507 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $42 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down $53 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 342 history records