Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b2f…fb86 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,210 (+87%) realized +$1,210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%32W / 28L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day137.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,368
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+66.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +84.4% +66.9% 53% 53% +79.8%
≤30d 60 +84.4% +66.9% 53% 53% +79.8%
≤90d 60 +84.4% +66.9% 53% 53% +79.8%
all 60 +84.4% +66.9% 53% 53% +79.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +66.9% 53% +79.8%
10% ← realistic here +50.9% 53% +62.6%
15% +36.3% 53% +46.9%
20% +23.0% 53% +32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +99% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +84% · $-wt +99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +107% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$19 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.6 per $1 lost it wins $3.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses32 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day137.9
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$68 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$68 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$57 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$34 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$67 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$87 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$53 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$13 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$77 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$96 +396%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$63 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$108 +340%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$40 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$55 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$18 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$13 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$55 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$130 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$187 +437%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$26 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$29 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$50 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$21 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$85 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$64 +399%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$105 +709%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 437 history records