Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b30…100f other 712 markets active 11h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$183 (-4%) realized −$150 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%400W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$204
14 days+$192
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$93
politics 18% −$83
world 15% +$83
sports 11% −$21
tech 5% −$41
finance 4% −$48
economics 2% −$19
culture 1% −$15
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +132.4% +110.3% 72% 72% +111.7%
≤30d 292 +7.8% -2.5% 64% 54% -6.3%
≤90d 665 -4.5% -13.6% 60% 54% -13.9%
all 665 -4.5% -13.6% 60% 54% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 54% -13.9%
10% -21.8% 41% -22.2%
15% -29.4% 31% -29.7%
20% -36.3% 24% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$150
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses400 / 265
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions47
Markets (closed)665 / 712
History coverage85d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.125B? No 27¢ 66¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+144%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? No 27¢ 71¢ $8 $22 +$14 (+163%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? No 22¢ 38¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+72%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 31¢ 57¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+84%)
Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? No 24¢ 40¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+67%)
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.9B? No 34¢ 51¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? No 30¢ 45¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? No 22¢ 27¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will John Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election? No 33¢ 40¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+21%)
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.3B? No 23¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B? No 45¢ 38¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 28¢ 50¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+80%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 41¢ 32¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-23%)
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 26¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-18%)
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 20¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-19%)
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? No 23¢ 18¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? No 30¢ 24¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-19%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? No 20¢ 19¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 21¢ 25¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? No 36¢ 42¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? No 22¢ 12¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-48%)
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? No 42¢ 47¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? No 25¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? No 35¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? No 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 226 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 $0 -3%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 18 $11 +$28 +246%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? Jun 18 $10 +$22 +222%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? Jun 18 $10 +$25 +252%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 18 $10 +$21 +212%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +121%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 16 $5 +$7 +143%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? Jun 15 $10 +$28 +284%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 14 $10 +$23 +230%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 14 $8 +$21 +248%
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -4%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$10 +85%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and He Jun 13 $12 +$2 +21%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Mohamed Salah score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $11 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Haiti elections delayed again? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -11%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 09 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 $0 -4%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30? Jun 09 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 in June? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $132 in June? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Astralis qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$37 +384%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 in June? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 08 $11 +$26 +232%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30? Jun 07 $6 +$5 +76%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Legacy qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$9 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 07 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 07 $10 −$9 -97%
Will 9z qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 07 $5 +$5 +102%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 87¢ $8 11h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $10 18h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $39 2d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? SELL No 77¢ $32 2d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? SELL No 77¢ $35 2d
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of SELL No 77¢ $15 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 20¢ $10 2d
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL No 76¢ $7 3d
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL No 77¢ $15 3d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 60¢ $5 3d
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect SELL No 86¢ $8 3d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 22¢ $10 3d
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele SELL No 90¢ $12 4d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? SELL No 80¢ $37 4d
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of SELL No 80¢ $15 5d
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $32 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 81¢ $30 5d
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 23¢ $11 5d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $21 5d
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 5d
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? SELL No 54¢ $6 7d
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and He SELL No 70¢ $14 7d
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY No 20¢ $8 8d
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4 SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? BUY No 27¢ $9 9d
Will Mohamed Salah score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $11 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 23¢ $8 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 23¢ $8 9d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? SELL No 99¢ $8 9d
Haiti elections delayed again? SELL No 73¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.58 · official $330.87 (match) · 1381 history records