Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3b34…4d76 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$148 (+14%) realized +$148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$101
14 days+$137
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$180
sports 11% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +42.5% +29.0% 62% 38% +2.1%
≤30d 11 +31.3% +18.8% 64% 36% +2.0%
≤90d 11 +31.3% +18.8% 64% 36% +2.0%
all 11 +31.3% +18.8% 64% 36% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.8% 36% +2.0%
10% +7.4% 36% -7.7%
15% -2.9% 18% -16.7%
20% -12.5% 9% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$21 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage13d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$17 +34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19 +$87 +468%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $161 +$62 +38%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $231 −$9 -4%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 23 $168 +$6 +3%
GTA VI released before November 2026? Jun 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $52 −$12 -24%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $176 +$47 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $68 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $32 44h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $161 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $222 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 92¢ $231 44h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 92¢ $119 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 92¢ $28 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 92¢ $5 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 92¢ $5 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 92¢ $5 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 92¢ $5 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 92¢ $5 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 92¢ $5 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 86¢ $12 3d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 86¢ $27 3d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 86¢ $27 3d
GTA VI released before November 2026? SELL No 95¢ $102 4d
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY No 92¢ $101 7d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 89¢ $102 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $39 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $53 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 89¢ $133 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $90 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 12d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 53¢ $24 12d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records