Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b34…129e crypto 1084 markets active 19h ago coverage 76d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$853 (+61%) realized +$853 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%709W / 711L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$81
14 days−$84
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+69.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 434 +241.7% +209.1% 50% 47% -38.7%
≤30d 684 +152.5% +128.5% 54% 52% -27.4%
≤90d 1420 +86.8% +69.0% 50% 49% -17.0%
all 1420 +86.8% +69.0% 50% 49% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +69.0% 49% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here +52.9% 45% -25.0%
15% +38.1% 40% -32.2%
20% +24.5% 17% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +146% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$853
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses709 / 711
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1420 / 1084
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1420 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 1PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 7PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +4728%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 4AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 12PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - February 13, 4PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +351%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 4PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +266%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 5AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +136%
XRP Up or Down - February 11, 1AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +246%
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 11AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 2AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +300%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 11AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 10AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +818%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 6PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -498%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +160%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 6AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +8113%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 6PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 8AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -352%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 7AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +175%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 11PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +34%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 4AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +395%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 6PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 9AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -330%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 7AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 3PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 8AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +400%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 4AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +149%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 11PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 9AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +190%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 2AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +509%
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 1PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 8PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 3AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +2295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records