Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b34…b454 other 40 markets active 6d ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$3 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%6W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$29
sports 12% +$5
weather 9% −$23
crypto 8% −$2
politics 2% −$10
culture 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -54.7% -59.0% 33% 33% -31.6%
≤30d 8 -83.0% -84.6% 12% 12% -86.2%
≤90d 39 -33.9% -40.2% 15% 15% -10.1%
all 39 -33.9% -40.2% 15% 15% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.2% 15% -10.1%
10% -46.0% 15% -18.7%
15% -51.2% 15% -26.5%
20% -56.0% 13% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$10 · ×5.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses6 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage74d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $97 $93 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy Jun 11 $9 +$3 +36%
Will Ludvig Åberg win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 28 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 20 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 20 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? Apr 30 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Harris English win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $20 +$266 +1329%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on March 29? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 300k and 400k? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Marc Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Marc Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on Marc Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Mar 30 $20 +$31 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 29? Mar 30 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 29 $5 +$12 +241%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Mar 29 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 29 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 6d
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy BUY John 73¢ $9 19d
Will Ludvig Åberg win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 19d
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 19d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 19d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 34¢ $24 27d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 27d
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 48d
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 48d
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 48d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Heritage? BUY No 34¢ $10 58d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 RBC Heritage? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 60d
Will Harris English win the 2026 RBC Heritage? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 60d
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 RBC Heritage? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 60d
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 60d
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 69d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 69d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 69d
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 70d
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 70d
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 70d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 70d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 70d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $10 78d
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 24¢ $5 78d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 40¢ $15 78d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 39¢ $20 79d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.44 · official $93.44 (match) · 66 history records