Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b36…8f60 world 41 markets active 3d ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$2
other 26% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 23% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 23% 0% -9.9%
all 41 -0.5% -9.9% 24% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage309d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $80 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $47 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $6 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $90 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 13 at 5 Aug 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 395–409 times August 8–August 15? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Aug 11 $1 $0 -17%
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Aug 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3800 on August 11? Aug 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 10 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $35 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $31 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $41 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $44 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $8 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $3 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $12 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $15 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records