Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3B 0x3b3f…3a36 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 559d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% $0
politics 5% $0
other 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -7.0% -15.9% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -31.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

559d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage559d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 13 $0 $0 -40%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Jun 10 $889 $0 +0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? May 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $1 $0 -2%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Jan 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 16 $0 $0 -14%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $0 $0 -12%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Dec 04 $80 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $8 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 21d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 21d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 49d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 78d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 92d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 92d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 112d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 112d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 142d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 142d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $9 174d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $9 174d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 203d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 203d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 231d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 231d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 260d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 260d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 300d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 300d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 300d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 337d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 337d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 337d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 370d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 370d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 371d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? SELL Yes $0 397d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records