Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b40…06b0
crypto · 158 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$149 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$152 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses83 / 74
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage72d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 157 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$209
14 days+$209
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$13 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $227 +$203 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $130 +$97 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$17 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $48 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $24 +$16 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $22 +$20 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $23 +$20 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$4 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$6 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $33 +$30 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$135
other 2% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $227 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $226 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $130 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $207 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $44 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $49 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +2.2% -7.5% 56% 54% +4.3%
≤30d 63 +2.2% -7.5% 56% 54% +4.3%
≤90d 157 +1.1% -8.5% 53% 43% -5.8%
all 157 +1.1% -8.5% 53% 43% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 43% -5.8%
10% -17.3% 37% -14.8%
15% -25.3% 35% -23.0%
20% -32.6% 34% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.54 · official $11.54 (match) · 407 history records