Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3b40…494c crypto 1788 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$139 (-1%) realized −$141 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate74%1557W / 541L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$392
7 days−$293
14 days−$170
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$296
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 672 -51.5% -56.1% 42% 40% -20.4%
≤30d 2098 -15.3% -23.3% 74% 57% -11.0%
≤90d 2098 -15.3% -23.3% 74% 57% -11.0%
all 2098 -15.3% -23.3% 74% 57% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 57% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 1% -19.5%
15% -37.4% 0% -27.3%
20% -43.5% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses1557 / 541
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2098 / 1788
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2098 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Up 82¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.81 · official $16.31 (match) · 3500 history records