Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:07:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b41…b4d0 other 54 markets active 17h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate13%7W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$15
other 12% +$4
sports 1% −$26
crypto 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -13.3%
≤90d 42 -10.8% -19.3% 12% 2% -11.2%
all 53 -8.6% -17.3% 13% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 2% -10.1%
10% -25.2% 2% -18.7%
15% -32.5% 2% -26.5%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses7 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage601d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 +$4 +50%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 06 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $51 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $11 +$1 +6%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 26? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $12 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $261 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 17h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 18h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 20h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $6 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $8 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 16d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 16d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.89 · official $31.89 (match) · 274 history records