Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b41…1db4 world 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate49%25W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$12
other 16% −$7
finance 10% +$1
politics 8% −$1
tech 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 15 +2.7% -7.1% 60% 13% -7.4%
≤90d 17 +2.6% -7.2% 59% 12% -7.4%
all 51 -2.2% -11.5% 49% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -8.9%
10% -20.0% 0% -17.6%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses25 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage475d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $23 +$2 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $40 +$6 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $36 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $86 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $35 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $36 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $35 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $38 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 06 $7 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 03 $7 $0 -1%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Progressive Reform Party win the most seats in the 2025 Surin May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 18 $7 $0 +3%
Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $3 $0 -10%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 09 $1 $0 -12%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $6 −$1 -13%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 25 $1 $0 +12%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $51 18m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $6 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $25 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $23 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $45 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $40 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $15 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $22 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $36 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $36 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $5 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $29 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 89¢ $37 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 89¢ $36 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records