Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b42…14f4 crypto 755 markets active 0h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$938 (-5%) realized −$936 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%359W / 386L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$276
14 days−$88
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,091
politics 11% +$3
other 2% −$33
tech 1% +$21
weather 1% −$9
culture 0% −$3
world 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -19.6% -27.2% 38% 37% -30.8%
≤30d 285 -15.7% -23.7% 42% 41% -14.2%
≤90d 473 -32.2% -38.7% 34% 33% -65.1%
all 745 -7.2% -16.1% 48% 44% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 44% -15.0%
10% -24.1% 41% -23.1%
15% -31.4% 39% -30.5%
20% -38.2% 38% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$936
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses359 / 386
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)745 / 755
History coverage232d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 745 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 20? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 20? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 19? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 20? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June Jun 18 $3 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 18 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 20? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $16 −$4 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $30 +$21 +70%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 18 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$20 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$16 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$2 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 4m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 6m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 6m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 23m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June SELL Yes 15¢ $3 42m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 42m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 42m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 44m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 46m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY Yes 16¢ $3 54m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 54m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.01 · official $108.09 (match) · 1914 history records