Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b46…9970 other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+0%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 49L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 59% −$13
politics 20% −$13
other 15% −$9
sports 2% +$82
crypto 2% +$2
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 21% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 55 +4.3% -5.7% 27% 16% -7.9%
all 68 +3.3% -6.5% 28% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 13% -9.3%
10% -15.5% 13% -17.9%
15% -23.6% 13% -25.9%
20% -31.1% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage622d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $355 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 22 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $32 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 13 $145 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $468 −$1 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $167 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $161 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 26 $153 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $165 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $153 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $155 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $160 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $162 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $161 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $164 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $13 +$10 +79%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $15 +$11 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $13 +$13 +104%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $16 +$2 +10%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Apr 06 $34 +$13 +37%
Flyers vs. Capitals Apr 06 $27 +$22 +82%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 06 $48 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 24h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 26h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $113 44h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $66 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $35 22d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 24d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 28d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 98¢ $35 28d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $35 28d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 29d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 29d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.15 · official $151.15 (match) · 366 history records