Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3b47…75f1 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$127 (-12%) realized −$121 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$791now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$130
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.4% -28.9% 60% 40% -51.2%
≤30d 5 -21.4% -28.9% 60% 40% -51.2%
≤90d 5 -21.4% -28.9% 60% 40% -51.2%
all 5 -21.4% -28.9% 60% 40% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 40% -51.2%
10% -35.7% 40% -55.8%
15% -41.9% 40% -60.1%
20% -47.6% 0% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$76 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$791
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $442 $439 −$3 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $355 $352 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $107 −$106 -99%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$20 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$7 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $358 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $446 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $56 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $60 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $46 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $46 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $60 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $791.25 · official $791.25 (match) · 11 history records