Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b4d…44e5 sports 139 markets active 3h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$248 (-9%) realized −$374 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%31W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$197
7 days−$250
14 days−$355
30 days−$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$107
crypto 25% −$144
other 12% −$185
economics 2% −$44
politics 1% +$54
weather 1% −$2
tech 0% −$10
finance 0% +$4
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -16.6% -24.5% 26% 23% -16.8%
≤30d 121 -19.6% -27.2% 26% 23% -19.6%
≤90d 121 -19.6% -27.2% 26% 23% -19.6%
all 121 -19.6% -27.2% 26% 23% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 23% -19.6%
10% -34.2% 23% -27.3%
15% -40.6% 21% -34.3%
20% -46.4% 19% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$14 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized−$374
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses31 / 90
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions18
Markets (closed)121 / 139
History coverage15d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? No 0¢ 1¢ $17 $81 +$64 (+372%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? No 0¢ 1¢ $11 $60 +$50 (+450%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $9 $38 +$29 (+325%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $31 $26 −$5 (-18%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? No 18¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $24 $16 −$8 (-32%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 18¢ 18¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+34%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $14 +$5 (+47%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? No 1¢ 1¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? No 3¢ 3¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? No 7¢ 8¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Mentality Monster 25¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+18%)
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 17¢ 8¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-56%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 23¢ 4¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $3 +$9 +276%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 $0 -10%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $41 +$102 +250%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$48 +237%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $72 −$30 -42%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $41 +$73 +178%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $30 −$23 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $36 −$25 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $32 −$28 -88%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$1 -25%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $32 +$136 +425%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 160.5 Jun 20 $27 +$14 +52%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $16 $0 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $8 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $51 +$64 +127%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -94%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $65 −$37 -57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $28 +$20 +71%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$92 -90%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $51 +$50 +99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $37 −$20 -54%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $68 +$19 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $84 −$58 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -94%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $135 −$37 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $45 −$31 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $19 −$18 -94%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $32 −$31 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $24 +$54 +226%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 18 $3 −$1 -17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$1 -6%
ITF Mohammedia: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Elina Nepliy Jun 18 $10 −$9 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $7 −$6 -94%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $12 −$11 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $11 +$28 +249%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$7 -68%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No 0¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY No 0¢ $12 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY No 0¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY No 0¢ $18 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL No 0¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? SELL No 2¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? SELL No 0¢ $14 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 6h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 25¢ $3 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 8h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 9h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 9h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $3 9h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 23¢ $6 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 18¢ $21 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 4¢ $6 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 4¢ $21 12h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $41 12h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 12h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.61 · official $373.64 (match) · 304 history records