Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
3B 0x3b4e…ad24 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$604 (-25%) realized −$604 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 268d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$75
politics 17% −$274
tech 16% −$239
economics 3% −$61
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-75.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.6% -13.6% 0% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 1 -4.6% -13.6% 0% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 1 -4.6% -13.6% 0% 0% -13.6%
all 9 -72.8% -75.4% 0% 0% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.4% 0% -34.6%
10% -77.7% 0% -40.9%
15% -79.9% 0% -46.6%
20% -81.8% 0% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$73 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$604
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage268d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $1,505 −$69 -5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 04 $61 −$61 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Feb 04 $128 −$4 -3%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? Feb 04 $264 −$235 -89%
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29? Sep 29 $300 −$174 -58%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? Sep 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? Sep 29 $3 −$3 -100%
US government shutdown in 2025? Sep 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $1,436 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,505 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY No 10¢ $61 139d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? SELL Yes 82¢ $61 139d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? BUY Yes 85¢ $63 139d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? SELL Yes 82¢ $63 139d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? BUY Yes 85¢ $65 139d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? SELL Yes 1¢ $29 139d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? BUY Yes 12¢ $101 190d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? BUY Yes 11¢ $163 190d
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29? SELL Yes 26¢ $126 268d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 268d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 268d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 268d
US government shutdown in 2025? BUY No 19¢ $100 268d
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29? BUY Yes 62¢ $300 268d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records