Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:14:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b4f…44f9 other 77 markets active 3d ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+0%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate23%17W / 58L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 63% −$14
other 16% −$5
politics 12% −$10
sports 3% +$100
crypto 2% +$4
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 +0.1% -9.4% 21% 11% -8.5%
all 75 +1.6% -8.1% 23% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 12% -9.2%
10% -16.9% 11% -17.9%
15% -24.9% 11% -25.8%
20% -32.3% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×6.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage605d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $205 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $208 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $25 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $165 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $178 $0 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $176 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $347 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 06 $65 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $80 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $183 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $177 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 01 $168 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $178 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $174 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $170 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $175 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $168 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $175 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $169 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $176 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $173 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 4d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $92 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 9d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $23 25d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 26d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $39 27d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 27d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $35 27d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 28d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 28d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 32d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 32d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $30 33d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $30 33d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $11 33d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.78 · official $142.78 (match) · 289 history records