Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b56…80f5 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$263 (-25%) realized −$263 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$352
14 days−$258
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$139
crypto 37% −$380
world 2% −$20
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.6% -26.4% 50% 35% -47.5%
≤30d 23 -16.3% -24.3% 52% 35% -32.2%
≤90d 23 -16.3% -24.3% 52% 35% -32.2%
all 23 -16.3% -24.3% 52% 35% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 35% -32.2%
10% -31.5% 30% -38.7%
15% -38.1% 22% -44.6%
20% -44.2% 17% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$40 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage7d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $65 +$22 +34%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $85 +$10 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$8 +23%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +179%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $383 −$380 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $91 +$4 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$90 +89%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $85 +$8 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 38¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 9h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $70 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $14 5d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $14 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $13 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 82¢ $60 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records