Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3B 0x3b58…81a5 other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$11
politics 18% −$5
economics 7% −$2
world 4% −$1
sports 4% +$5
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 +0.8% -8.8% 12% 9% -9.6%
all 103 +0.8% -8.8% 12% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 9% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 9% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 8% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 91
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage87d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $125 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $441 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $240 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $207 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $431 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $456 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $378 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $420 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $410 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $212 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,187 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $196 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $193 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $215 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $194 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $412 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $216 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $213 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 28 $217 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 18 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $384 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $198 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $354 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $211 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $199 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 4h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 20h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 24h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $125 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 4d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $42 16d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $42 16d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $46 18d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $47 18d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 18d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 19d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 21d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $39 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 25d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 26d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $62 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.62 · official $125.62 (match) · 295 history records