Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:05:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b5f…7b99 sports 806 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,083 (-7%) realized −$4,942 · open −$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%348W / 453L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$769est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days−$310
14 days−$1,347
30 days−$1,743
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$3,370
other 22% −$2,195
world 1% +$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.8% -10.3% 45% 45% -18.5%
≤30d 118 -9.1% -17.7% 42% 41% -23.5%
≤90d 658 -6.5% -15.4% 43% 42% -16.0%
all 801 -5.1% -14.1% 43% 43% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 43% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 42% -23.6%
15% -29.8% 42% -31.0%
20% -36.7% 41% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$91 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,942
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses348 / 453
Est. fees paid−$769
Open positions2
Markets (closed)801 / 806
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 801 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $116 −$112 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $100 +$198 +198%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $98 −$98 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19 Jun 20 $100 +$116 +117%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $37 +$60 +162%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 +$73 +72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $118 −$117 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $71 +$74 +104%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $68 +$77 +113%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $276 −$276 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $208 −$208 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $180 +$220 +122%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $90 −$87 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $225 +$275 +122%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $174 +$113 +65%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $106 +$134 +127%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $80 +$120 +150%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $9 +$10 +108%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $48 +$52 +108%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $78 +$122 +156%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5) Jun 14 $48 +$52 +108%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $105 +$95 +90%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 13 $94 −$94 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 +$75 +75%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-5.5) Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $138 −$138 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) Jun 12 $112 +$108 +96%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $48 +$52 +108%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $111 +$1 +1%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 10 $72 −$72 -100%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5) Jun 10 $94 −$94 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $89 −$89 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 2¢ $4 34m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $124 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $20 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $116 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $98 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 33¢ $100 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $48 27h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 50¢ $5 28h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 50¢ $30 28h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 50¢ $10 28h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 50¢ $25 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $100 32h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY 37¢ $37 40h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19 BUY 45¢ $100 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $118 2d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 47¢ $68 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 49¢ $57 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 49¢ $14 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $150 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $72 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $70 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $166 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $13 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $13 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $8 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $152 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.16 (match) · 3500 history records