Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b5f…088b world 78 markets active 3h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 47L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% $0
politics 21% +$1
other 21% −$1
sports 15% −$8
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% −$5
weather 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.5% -8.2% 33% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 2% -9.8%
all 76 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 4% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 47
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage485d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $61 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 +$3 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $45 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $53 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $16 +$1 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $77 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $80 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $23 −$2 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $39 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $10 −$1 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $19 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $10 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 +3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $3 $0 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $136 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $76 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $14 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $81 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $59 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $17 $0 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $88 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $18 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $14 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $12 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $24 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $18 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $18 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $38 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.52 · official $34.52 (match) · 296 history records