Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3b60…4e26 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,869 (+38%) realized +$1,874 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days−$226
14 days−$226
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$1,919
sports 2% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -32.2% -38.6% 33% 33% -37.5%
≤30d 6 -32.2% -38.6% 33% 33% -37.5%
≤90d 8 +8.8% -1.6% 50% 50% +11.2%
all 9 +15.9% +4.9% 56% 56% +27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 56% +27.9%
10% -5.2% 56% +15.6%
15% -14.3% 33% +4.5%
20% -22.7% 33% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$460 vs −$108 · ×4.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.31 per $1 lost it wins $5.31
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized+$1,874
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage108d
Avg bet$376
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $126 +$36 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 18 $102 −$57 -56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $127 +$170 +134%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 30 $2,000 +$600 +30%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Apr 20 $120 +$280 +233%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 16 $1,667 +$1,213 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $77 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $126 24h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Ronaldo 8¢ $45 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 45h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 18¢ $102 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $127 45h
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,000 59d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY No 50¢ $100 99d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY No 50¢ $100 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? BUY No 30¢ $74 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY No 51¢ $102 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY No 52¢ $104 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY No 53¢ $106 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY No 54¢ $108 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY No 55¢ $98 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY No 55¢ $12 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY No 56¢ $37 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $241 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $98 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $91 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $94 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY No 56¢ $75 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY No 56¢ $112 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY No 55¢ $110 107d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? BUY No 30¢ $9 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.06 · official $355.06 (match) · 40 history records