Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b61…04d0 crypto 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%144W / 14L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 92% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 29 +0.4% -9.1% 93% 0% -9.1%
all 158 +0.2% -9.3% 91% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.75 per $1 lost it wins $4.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses144 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage277d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $206 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $206 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? Jun 25 $204 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $204 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 23 $206 −$2 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $203 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $202 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 10 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $201 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $201 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 31 $197 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $197 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 28 $195 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $194 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 10 $193 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 06 $193 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $193 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $190 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $190 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $188 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $186 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $186 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $186 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 31 $184 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 31 $184 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $183 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $183 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $182 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $181 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? Mar 15 $179 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $178 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $178 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $177 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $176 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $176 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 28? Feb 27 $176 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $176 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $207 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $133 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $74 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $207 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $206 30h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $204 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $204 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $204 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $204 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $206 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $203 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $202 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $202 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $201 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $202 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $201 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $198 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $197 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? SELL No 100¢ $198 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $197 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $196 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $195 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $195 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $194 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $193 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $193 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $193 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 345 history records