Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b62…3b8c crypto 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%65W / 1L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% $0
other 19% $0
weather 14% $0
politics 9% +$1
world 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 34 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.5%
all 66 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses65 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage543d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 27 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 28? Jun 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 27 $32 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? Jun 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 23? May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 23? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16? May 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on May 5? May 10 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? May 10 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Solana reach $110 April 27-May 3? May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 2? May 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 26? May 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 28? May 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 23? Apr 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on April 24? Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 23? Apr 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 25? Apr 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 21? Apr 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or higher on April 2 Apr 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 21? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on April 18? Apr 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on April 13? Apr 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 12 Apr 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 6-12? Apr 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on April 7? Apr 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 7? Apr 11 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $90 on April 7? Apr 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? Apr 07 $77 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $92 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 08 $90 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 02 $113 $0 +0%
Bill allowing Trump 3rd term passes House before June? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs on EU before Wednesday? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Trump uses a recess appointment for Cabinet? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
RFK's daughter-in-law picked as CIA deputy director? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Was JFK assassinated by a foreign government? Apr 07 $7 $0 +0%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? Apr 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 23? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign 10-14 executive orders in March? Mar 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine take responsibility for X attack by Friday? Mar 15 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $19 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $40 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $42 37d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 37d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $11 43d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? BUY No 99¢ $32 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $48 43d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? SELL No 92¢ $23 48d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 98¢ $25 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $20 53d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $57 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 53d
Will Solana reach $110 April 27-May 3? BUY No 100¢ $25 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $78 57d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $39 62d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $26 62d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $12 65d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $14 65d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $23 65d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $18 65d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $37 67d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 100¢ $22 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $34 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $25 70d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $12 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $17 70d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 12 BUY No 100¢ $24 76d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $19 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.55 · official $78.55 (match) · 137 history records