Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b62…09d9 crypto 693 markets active 0h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$742 (+5%) realized +$765 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%201W / 490L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$72
14 days+$2
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$2,975
crypto 41% −$2,165
culture 9% +$131
world 3% −$262
other 2% −$231
politics 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +54.0% +39.4% 67% 67% +43.8%
≤30d 27 -17.8% -25.6% 37% 30% -26.6%
≤90d 640 -18.7% -26.5% 29% 27% -10.6%
all 691 -17.9% -25.7% 29% 27% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 27% -6.7%
10% -32.8% 25% -15.6%
15% -39.3% 22% -23.8%
20% -45.2% 19% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$17 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$765
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses201 / 490
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions2
Markets (closed)691 / 693
History coverage187d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 26¢ 10¢ $22 $8 −$14 (-63%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $41 +$41 +99%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $34 −$5 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$36 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $54 −$3 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$15 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$23 -64%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$86 +161%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$36 +199%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$16 +156%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $15 +$26 +170%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $183 −$183 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $86 +$54 +63%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $83 +$508 +613%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $21 −$10 -47%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $109 +$295 +272%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $78 −$78 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 20 $14 −$7 -50%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 20 $7 +$16 +214%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $11 5m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 86¢ $82 6m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $17 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $24 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 37¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $18 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $63 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $11 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $50 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $3 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $51 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $21 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.13 · official $8.13 (match) · 2515 history records