Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3B 0x3b62…5cc8 sports 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,708 (+3%) realized +$4,572 · open +$136
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%46W / 35L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,623per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$343est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$6,261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,581
7 days+$4,274
14 days+$7,998
30 days+$4,145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$5,078
sports 18% −$2,122
crypto 1% +$1,325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -9.4% -18.0% 73% 61% -5.4%
≤30d 81 -13.3% -21.6% 57% 51% -6.6%
≤90d 81 -13.3% -21.6% 57% 51% -6.6%
all 81 -13.3% -21.6% 57% 51% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 51% -6.6%
10% -29.1% 36% -15.5%
15% -35.9% 25% -23.7%
20% -42.2% 20% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$2,440) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$575 vs −$637 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$6,261
Realized+$4,572
Unrealized+$136
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses46 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1,623
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 94¢ 94¢ $3,780 $3,762 −$18 (-0%)
Curaçao leading at halftime? No 94¢ 100¢ $2,345 $2,499 +$154 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8,100 +$1,400 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6,841 +$1,659 +24%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,253 −$3,230 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8,128 +$372 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,269 +$731 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,473 +$527 +21%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3,877 +$1,123 +29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,632 +$363 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,842 +$658 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,468 +$832 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $715 −$700 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,469 −$2,440 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,376 +$624 +18%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,660 +$340 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,116 +$134 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,527 +$267 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,411 +$584 +13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,024 +$976 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,875 +$628 +16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,979 +$617 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $404 +$202 +50%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,213 +$537 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $176 +$54 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,387 −$2,367 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,672 +$1,325 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $333 +$167 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $323 +$177 +55%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,473 +$527 +21%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,307 −$1,300 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,890 +$606 +21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,104 +$192 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,163 +$337 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,243 +$507 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,254 +$546 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,795 +$193 +11%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $945 +$847 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $452 +$495 +109%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston Jun 06 $83 −$82 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $527 −$520 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 05 $477 −$470 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $647 −$640 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $387 +$613 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $77 −$75 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $305 +$445 +146%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $173 +$326 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $89 −$87 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $2,349 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $3,786 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 67¢ $677 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $7,424 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $805 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $805 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $5,231 10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $574 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $2,679 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $8,128 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $427 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $3,842 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $412 31h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $2,061 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $388 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $3,489 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $4,995 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $466 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $1,491 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $2,674 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $427 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $3,415 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 81¢ $652 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $2,817 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $143 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $572 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $617 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $309 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $1,543 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $169 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,260.75 · official $6,260.75 (match) · 204 history records