Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b63…39b9 crypto 556 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-1%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%422W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day64.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$54
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -4.1% -13.2% 88% 12% -11.9%
≤30d 556 +1.8% -7.9% 76% 29% -11.9%
≤90d 556 +1.8% -7.9% 76% 29% -11.9%
all 556 +1.8% -7.9% 76% 29% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 29% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 12% -20.3%
15% -24.8% 6% -28.0%
20% -32.2% 3% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses422 / 134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)556 / 556
History coverage18d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day64.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 556 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1671 history records