Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:04:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b67…706e world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$8
politics 19% $0
other 16% $0
crypto 8% −$4
sports 5% $0
economics 5% −$1
finance 3% $0
culture 3% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.1% -13.2% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 7 +3.1% -6.8% 29% 14% -8.7%
≤90d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 7% -11.1%
all 51 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 2% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -10.7%
10% -19.2% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage279d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 −$3 -8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $31 +$3 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $10 +$2 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $32 −$9 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $3 $0 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $60 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $41 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $12 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $32 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $2 $0 -11%
Will Oliver Thomas win the 2025 New Orleans mayoral election? Oct 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $19 $0 -1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 11 $23 −$5 -20%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 8? Oct 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 04 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 26 $28 $0 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 19 $4 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $33 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $36 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $3 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $24 11h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $36 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 74¢ $33 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $8 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $22 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $11 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $11 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $32 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records