Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3B 0x3b69…9c68 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (636 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$5,388 (+23%) realized +$5,388 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate66%29W / 15L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$541per market
Trades / day635.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6,714
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (636 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +29.0% +16.7% 66% 64% +17.3%
≤30d 44 +29.0% +16.7% 66% 64% +17.3%
≤90d 44 +29.0% +16.7% 66% 64% +17.3%
all 44 +29.0% +16.7% 66% 64% +17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover635.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.7% 64% +17.3%
10% +5.6% 59% +6.1%
15% ← realistic here -4.6% 55% -4.2%
20% -14.0% 50% -13.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$696) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$428 vs −$379 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,388
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses29 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$541
Trades / day635.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $1,468 +$701 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $3,079 −$2,606 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $720 +$426 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $563 +$319 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $477 +$160 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $610 −$207 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $151 −$139 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $353 +$370 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $332 +$224 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $256 +$205 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $208 +$356 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$57 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $699 −$548 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $617 +$372 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $359 +$185 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $256 −$241 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $1,231 −$271 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $732 +$890 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $356 −$341 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $705 +$923 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $208 −$196 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $382 +$388 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $326 −$312 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $179 −$170 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $1,259 +$732 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $283 −$270 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $687 +$560 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $65 +$43 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $1,873 +$875 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$68 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $833 +$625 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $450 +$821 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $696 +$1,020 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $516 +$522 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $462 +$707 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $208 −$198 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $393 +$546 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $131 +$326 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $310 −$87 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $833 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $157 +$25 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $107 +$14 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $914 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $198 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $605 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $38 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $212 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $49 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $68 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $939 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $99 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $141 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $192 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $97 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $271 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1,206.64 · 730 history records