Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b6f…0e1d crypto 1649 markets active 3h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$483 (-6%) realized −$483 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%831W / 817L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$99
14 days−$230
30 days−$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$607
other 0% −$10
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -8.2% -17.0% 52% 51% -19.3%
≤30d 718 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 50% -18.2%
≤90d 1290 -3.1% -12.3% 51% 49% -16.8%
all 1648 -3.0% -12.2% 50% 49% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 49% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 46% -24.7%
15% -28.3% 42% -32.0%
20% -35.3% 34% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$483
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses831 / 817
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1648 / 1649
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1648 Trades
no open positions (188 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $17 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $6 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records