Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b6f…925b crypto 28 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+17%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$2
sports 38% +$4
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +5.6% -4.5% 57% 54% +2.7%
≤30d 28 +5.6% -4.5% 57% 54% +2.7%
≤90d 28 +5.6% -4.5% 57% 54% +2.7%
all 28 +5.6% -4.5% 57% 54% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 54% +2.7%
10% -13.6% 39% -7.2%
15% -22.0% 39% -16.1%
20% -29.6% 36% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +101%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 44h
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $1 45h
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 45h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 2d
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records