Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b7a…3ce8 sports 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%158W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days+$126
14 days+$76
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$95
other 1% −$11
crypto 1% −$39
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +7.5% -2.8% 67% 61% -3.8%
≤30d 58 +6.0% -4.1% 67% 62% -11.5%
≤90d 157 -26.2% -33.3% 45% 42% -30.3%
all 251 -1.0% -10.4% 63% 59% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 59% -9.1%
10% -19.0% 47% -17.8%
15% -26.8% 35% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 21% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$27 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses158 / 93
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage108d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $199 +$31 +15%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $37 +$19 +50%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND Por Jun 18 $13 +$14 +104%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $137 +$36 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $108 +$29 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $88 +$20 +23%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 +$10 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 −$38 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 +$12 +48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $19 +$7 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 +$12 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $44 +$17 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$4 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France Jun 17 $16 +$32 +199%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND Ira Jun 16 $19 −$3 -15%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $32 −$32 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$2 -12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $140 −$139 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AN Jun 15 $19 +$18 +91%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $121 +$15 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$16 +52%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $102 +$9 +8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 +$18 +46%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$7 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 +$6 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$14 +140%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 +$9 +29%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $53 +$5 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$11 +55%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$12 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 +$20 +40%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $5 38m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $229 39m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $56 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $56 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $143 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $37 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $137 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $108 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $108 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $88 21h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $88 21h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $38 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $26 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $41 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $19 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND Por BUY 48¢ $13 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $11 36h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 36h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $44 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $8 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $40 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France BUY 33¢ $16 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 511 history records