Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b80…d608
crypto · 128 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$40 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$40 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses50 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)122 / 128
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day126.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 6 History 122 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 92¢ 93¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? No 97¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? No 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? No 36¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 12 $0 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -18%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $9 $0 -1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 11 $3 $0 -13%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -16%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 10 $2 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$5 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$8 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$34
other 8% −$10
world 7% +$1
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 11m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 12m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 12m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 27m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $0 36m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 81¢ $4 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $1 44m
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? SELL No 57¢ $0 57m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 86¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $1 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 85¢ $1 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? SELL No 57¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 86¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $1 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? SELL No 56¢ $0 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 86¢ $3 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 86¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL No 36¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 85¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 85¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 84¢ $1 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL No 51¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -8.6% -17.3% 41% 29% -14.9%
≤30d 122 -8.6% -17.3% 41% 29% -14.9%
≤90d 122 -8.6% -17.3% 41% 29% -14.9%
all 122 -8.6% -17.3% 41% 29% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover126.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 29% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 19% -23.0%
15% -32.5% 12% -30.5%
20% -39.1% 7% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.80 · official $8.99 (match) · 684 history records